The White House launched an active public relations campaign to promote the narrative of economic strength in the first six months of US President Donald Trump, and his policies have spurred the “golden age of America.”
However, Al Jazeera analysis of economic data shows that reality is more complicated.
Trump’s claims that his policies helped the US economy were hit hard on Friday when the latest employment report revealed last month that added just 73,000 jobs that 115,000 forecasters had expected. The only addition is in the healthcare sector, with 55,000 jobs added and the social services sector added 18,000.
U.S. employers also cut 62,075 jobs in July. This was a 29% increase in July and a 140% increase from last year’s cuts, according to Gray and Christmas, a company that tracks job cuts for the month. The government, technology and retail sectors are the industries that have seen the biggest declines so far this year.
That’s coming as this month’s employment and labor turnover report showed a slowdown in the economy. There are 7.4 million open jobs in the US, down from 7.7 million a month ago.
The Labor Department announced downward revisions on Friday to both the May and June employment reports, significantly changing the White House’s previous drawings.
“For the fourth consecutive month, employment numbers have beaten market expectations by generating nearly 150,000 good jobs in June,” the White House said in a July 3 release, following a June 3 report.
The Labor Bureau had reported 147,000 additional jobs in June. On Friday, the number was reduced to just 14,000. Additionally, a report in May has resulted in a major downgrade of just 19,000 jobs, from 144,000. Trump has since fired the head of the agency that generates monthly employment data, claiming that the data was manipulated to make him look bad.
Even before the amendment, the June report was the first to reflect early signs of economic tensions linked to the administration’s tariff threat. This is because it made it clear that employment growth is concentrated in areas such as state and local government and healthcare. Sectors exposed to trade policies, including construction, wholesale and manufacturing, remained flat. Meanwhile, leisure and hospitality showed weak growth, even at its peak in the summer, reflecting a decline in travel demand both domestically and internationally.
The administration also argued that native-born workers have accounted for all employment benefits since January. The claim is misleading as it means that naturalized citizens and legally foreign workers are not acquiring employment.
However, it is true that employment among foreign-born workers claims that employment of over 500,000 people will replace native-born workers and not supported by employment data.
Lost employment in the high-level foreign-born employment sector, including technology, was abundant, driven by tariffs and automation, particularly AI. In fact, recent layoffs in technology are explicitly attributed to advances in AI rather than labor mobility by other groups.
Companies including Recruit Holdings – In fact, parent companies such as Glassdoor, Axel Springer, IBM and Duolingo have already cut jobs directly due to advances in AI.
Wage growth
The pace of wage growth, an indicator of economic success, has slowed down in recent months. This is due to the Federal Reserve maintaining stable interest rates in the hopes of stabilizing inflation.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, wages have surpassed inflation since 2023, after a period of real wage decline after the COVID pandemic.
Wage growth increased 0.3% in July from a month ago. According to a Labor Ministry employment report on Friday, wage growth was 3.9% compared to this period last year.
Earlier this year, the White House painted a picture of wage growth differing between the days of former President Joe Biden and the days under Trump due to policies.
“Blue-collar workers have seen real wages increase almost 2% in the first five months of President Trump’s second term, in stark contrast to the negative wage growth seen in the first five months of the Biden administration,” the White House announced.
But Biden and Trump inherited two very different economies when they took office. Biden must deal with the massive global economic downturn driven by the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Meanwhile, in his second term, Trump inherited “the strongest economy without a doubt” for over 20 years, according to the Institute for Economic Policy.
inflation
Inflation peaked in mid-2022 at 9% during Biden’s term, then fell steadily due to the Federal Reserve efforts to manage soft landings.
A White House statement on July 21 claimed that “core inflation has been tracked at just 2.1% since President Trump took office.” On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett said in an X post that “inflation is cooling.”
However, the Consumer Price Index report, which tracks core inflation (a measure that excludes the prices of volatile items such as food and energy), was 2.9% in the most recent report, with overall inflation of 2.7% in June.
price
The latest Consumer Price Index report issued on July 15 shows that prices for all products rose at 0.3 in June each month, 2.7% higher than this period last year.
Food prices in particular have increased 2.4% since this period last year, and 0.3% from the previous month. The cost of fruits and vegetables rose 0.9%, coffee prices rose 2.2%, and beef costs rose 2%.
As Al Jazeera previously reported, new hold charges in Brazil could further increase the cost of beef in the coming months.
Trump pointed to a fall in egg prices, particularly as evidence of economic success, after Democrats attacked his administration over his price in March. He even claimed that prices were falling 400%. That number is mathematically impossible – a 100% reduction means that the egg is free.
During the first months of Trump’s term, egg prices surged, and then fell not due to specific policy interventions, but due to the outbreak and recovery of severe bird flue outbreaks that were hindering supply.
When Trump spawned eggs in January, it was $4.95 per dozen due to virus-restricted supply. By March, the average egg price was $6.23. However, outbreaks and higher prices have driven out consumers, allowing farmers with healthier flocks to catch up with the supply side. As a result, the price fell to an average of $3.38. This is a 32% drop since the start of his term, falling 46% from the peak price that Trump claimed, far from the 400%.
Trump recently said that gasoline prices are $1.98 per gallon ($0.52 per liter). He doubled it again on Wednesday. That’s not true. Not one state has these gas prices.
According to Gasbuddy, a platform that helps consumers find the lowest prices for gasoline, Mississippi has the cheapest gas at $2.70 per gallon ($0.71 per liter), while the cheapest gas station in the state currently sells for $2.37 ($0.62 per liter).
The AAA tracking average gasoline prices was $3.15 per gallon ($0.83 per liter) nationwide, which was $3.11 ($0.82 per liter) since the end of January.
Petrol prices have been falling since Trump took office, but they haven’t come close to the rate he has been continuing to propose. For example, in July 2024, the average price of gasoline nationwide was $3.50 ($0.93 per liter).
GDP
On Wednesday, the White House said “President Trump reduced America’s dependence on foreign products and encouraged investment in the United States,” citing the positive GDP data that came out that morning.
That’s misleading. The US economy surpassed expectations, growing at an annual rate of 3% in the second quarter. This was a combination of a weak rebound in the first quarter, a decline in imports that boosted GDP, and a slight increase in consumer spending.
Data under the heading showed that private sector investments fell sharply by 15.6% and goods and services catalogues fell by 3.2%, indicating a slowdown.
Manufacturing
The administration has recently highlighted the benefits of industrial production and pointed to a boost to domestic manufacturing. Overall, US industrial production rose 0.3% in June. It was after two months of stagnation.
There were isolated profits of 1.6% and 2.9%, including an increase in aerospace and oil-related sectors, respectively.
However, production of durable goods – items not necessarily for immediate consumption remain flat, and automobile manufacturing fell 2.6% last month as tariffs dampened demand. Mining output has also decreased by 0.3%.
The manufacturing growth of non-durable products has slowed down, according to the Ministry of Commerce’s GDP report. There was a 1.3% increase, down from 2.3% in the last quarter.
This could change as several companies in various sectors have just pledged to invest $50 billion in the coming $1,000, as they have pledged to increase US production, including automaker Hyundai and pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca.
Trade Transactions and Tariffs
In April, the White House replaced the country-specific tariffs with 10% blanket tariffs, maintaining additional taxation on steel, cars and other items. He later promised to offer “90 trade transactions in 90 days.” That benchmark was not met. By the deadline, only one loose physical deal with the UK had been announced. 113 days later, the US announced trade equivalents with only a handful of countries and the European Union. EU transactions require parliamentary approval.
Contrary to the administration’s claims, tariffs do not put pressure on foreign exporters. They could be paid by US importers and ultimately handed over to US consumers. Companies including Big Box retailers Walmart and Toymaker Mattel have announced price increases as a direct result. For example, Ford has raised the prices of three Mexican-assembled models due to tariff pressure.
Many countries are fighting for trade policies from the United States to protect their own economy. Brazil and Mexico recently announced new trade agreements.
The White House and its allies continue to protect tariffs by highlighting the increased revenue they bring to the federal government. Since Trump took office, the US has generated more than $100 billion in revenue over 2024 compared to $77 billion. Although consumer import prices have only risen by around 3%, they are expected to change once import taxes are passed on to consumers.
The White House did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.
