President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet in Anchorage, Alaska on Friday to end the three-year attack on Russia’s Ukraine.
In preparation for the meeting, Trump said he believes Putin is ready to agree to a ceasefire. But his suggestion that Putin and Ukrainian President Voldimia Zelenki could “divide things” is on the lookout for Kiev observers.
On their part, remarks from top Russian officials suggest that Moscow tried to lower the debate on the war, linking it to other bilateral issues, particularly by restoring economic ties with the United States.
On Thursday, Putin sat down with top Kremlin officials to discuss the Alaska meeting. He said he believes the United States is “making a sincere effort to stop the fighting, end the crisis and reach an agreement of interest to all parties involved in this conflict.”
Earlier Thursday, Yuri Ushakov, one of Putin’s top foreign policy aides, told reporters about preparing for the Russian talks. He said, “It is clear to everyone that the central topic will be the solution to the Ukraine crisis.”
“A further development of bilateral cooperation, including trade and economic sectors, is expected to have an exchange of views,” he said.
Usakov also announced that in addition to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Russian delegation in Alaska will include President Putin’s envoy on foreign investment and economic cooperation, Kiril Dmitriev, the country’s finance ministers Anton Silanov and Kiril Dmitriev.
Including Silanov and Dmitriev is another indication that the Kremlin wanted to discuss economic issues at the summit.
What does Russia-US trade look like?
In 2021, before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, total trade between Russia and the United States was $36.1 billion. This included $6.4 billion in US exports to Russia and $29.7 billion in US imports from Russia. This amounts to a US trade deficit of $23.3 billion.
For context, Russia was America’s 30th largest trading partner in 2021. Since then, after numerous rounds of US sanctions, trade between Russia and the US has fallen by about 90%.
Incidentally, Russia’s overall trade balance – leaving the US – has dropped significantly following the decision to invade Ukraine. From 2022 to 2023, international payment balances fell by a whopping 70% to just $86.3 billion.
However, in 2021, Russia’s trade surplus with the US was almost exclusively concentrated on goods. Oil, minerals and basic metals such as iron and steel account for about 75% of Russia’s exports. Meanwhile, US exports to Russia were concentrated on manufactured goods.
Was exports to the US important to Russia?
The short answer is no.
By the time Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the US, whose energy sector had been converted by hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling in the early 2000s, was already the world’s largest oil producer, with 11.9 million barrels of oil per day.
One area where Russia held limited importance was a certain type of energy product. Russia has supplied certain grades of crude oil, especially Urals, and refined products such as vacuum gas oil (VGO), residual fuel oil, and naphtha.
Russian VGOs were particularly important for producing gasoline and diesel products in US refineries that lack sufficient domestic ingredients with optimal chemical and physical properties.
Elsewhere, the US continues to import limited amounts of hexafluoride, a chemical important for uranium treatment from Russia. Some US utility companies still have supply agreements with Russia. This accounts for about a third of America’s rich uranium needs when the war broke out.
But like energy products, American companies exposed to Russian uranium supply have readjusted their supply chains in response to sanctions. Furthermore, US companies such as X-Energy and Orano have invested heavily in domestic production in recent years.
Is there any other leverage in Russia?
In the wake of sanctions since February 2022, most Russian goods shipments have been re-routed from Western countries to China at discounted prices, including energy products and uranium.
In fact, trade between China and Russia is growing in parallel with sanctions against Russia. Common borders, common geopolitical perspectives and joint opposition with the US deepens bilateral relations.
According to the European Centre for Policy Analysis, Russia and China trade grew by about 30% per year in both 2022 and 2023, reaching $240.1 billion in both 2022 and 2023. In 2024, Russia rose from 13th place in 2020 to seventh place in China’s trading partner.
Meanwhile, China has provided Russia with higher-end products such as advanced electronics and industrial machinery, while Moscow has solidified its position as a top supplier of oil and gas in Beijing.
Additionally, the two countries are doing regular naval exercises and strategic bomber patrols together. The US has consistently expressed concerns about joint military training, viewing China-Russia integrity as a threat to the role of global leadership.
Putin recognizes these dynamics heading into Friday’s meeting.
What else can Putin offer Trump?
In March, Putin’s investment envoy – Kiril Dmitriev – claimed that Russia and the US had launched talks on Russia’s rare earth metal projects, with some American companies already showing interest in them.
“Rare earth metals are an important area of cooperation, and of course we have begun discussions on various rare earth metals and (other) projects in Russia,” Dmitriev told the Izvestia newspaper.
Nearly complete global control over China’s important mineral production — used in everything from defense equipment to home appliances — has focused on the development of Washington’s own supply.
The US Geological Survey estimates Russia’s rare earth metal reserves at 3.8 million tonnes, while Moscow has a much higher estimate.
Russia has 15 rare earth metal reserves totaling 28.7 million tonnes as of January 2023, according to the Ministry of Natural Resources.
However, even considering the margins of error hanging from Russia’s potential rare earth supply, it accounts for only a small portion of the world’s stockpile.
So, in recent months, the US has been pursuing security mineral contracts with the Democratic Republic of Ukraine to rob control of the global supply chain away from China.
They may try to do the same in Russia.
What does Russia want from these meetings?
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Western countries have imposed 21,692 sanctions on Russia, mostly on individuals.
Moscow’s major sanctions include a ban on importing Russian oil, a cap on Russian fuel prices, and a freeze on Russian central bank assets held at European financial institutions.
However, on July 14, Trump threatened to impose so-called secondary sanctions, and if they were to be put, marked significant changes.
Since then, he has targeted India, the second-largest buyer of Russian oil, by doubling the tariff on 25% on goods to 50% as a penalty for trade with Moscow. So far, Trump has not imposed similar secondary tariffs on China, the largest consumer of Russian oil.
However, he suggests that Beijing could face such tariffs in the future as the US attempts to pressure the country to stop purchasing Russian crude oil.
Members of the Trump administration have also indicated that if Trump Putin’s discussions in Alaska fail to work, tariffs on India could rise further.
Meanwhile, lawmakers from both US political parties are calling for a bill (the 2025 Russian Sanctions Act) targeting countries that buy Russia’s oil and gas.
The bill would give Trump the power to impose 500% tariffs on any country that supports Russia. The US senator is reportedly waiting for Trump to move forward with the bill.
In Alaska, Putin is expected to demand that Moscow relax Western sanctions on Russia in exchange for agreeing to a peace agreement.
