Economists believe that President Donald Trump’s tariff policies led to a decline in trade between Germany and the United States, its largest trading partner, last year.
Published October 22, 2025
China overtook the United States to become Germany’s largest trading partner in the first eight months of 2025, according to provisional data from the German Statistical Office.
Germany’s imports and exports with China totaled $190.7 billion (163.4 billion euros) from January to August, and trade with the United States amounted to $189 billion (162.8 billion euros), according to Reuters calculations.
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In 2024, the United States will become Germany’s largest trading partner, ending an eight-year streak for China. Germany had sought to reduce its dependence on China due to political differences and had accused China of unfair practices.
But trade dynamics changed again this year with US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the resumption of his tariff campaign.
Due to the impact of tariffs, German exports to the United States have fallen by 7.4% in the first eight months of this year compared to 2024.
In August, exports to the United States also fell by 23.5% compared to the same month last year, indicating that this trend is accelerating.
“There is no question that U.S. tariff and trade policy is an important reason for the decline in sales,” said Dirk Jandura, president of the BGA Foreign Trade Association.
Jandula added that U.S. demand for classic German exports such as cars, machinery and chemicals has declined.
Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at financial institution ING, said Germany’s exports to the United States were unlikely to recover anytime soon, given the continued threat of tariffs and the strong euro.
Exports to China fell even more sharply than exports to the United States, falling by 13.5% year-on-year to $63.5 billion (€54.7 billion) in the first eight months of 2025.
In contrast, imports from China rose by 8.3% to $126.4 billion (€108.8 billion).
“We are concerned that the import boom from China is booming again, especially as data shows that these imports are being offered at dumped prices,” Brzeski said.
He warned that this trend could not only increase Germany’s dependence on China, but also increase stress in key industries where China is a major rival.
“In the absence of domestic economic vitality, some people in Germany may be bothered by changes in the global market,” said Salomon Fiedler, an economist at Berenberg Bank.
