China’s new goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has been branded as “disappointing” and “overwhelming” by climate experts, warning a pledge that goes beyond the actions needed to avoid a climate catastrophe.
However, the goal also sparked hope that China, which had previously committed to stopping emissions from rising, could ultimately lead to much more ambitious cuts amid the country’s vast expansion of renewable energy capabilities.
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In a video address to the United Nations on Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping said China will cut emissions from its peak by 7-10% by 2035.
It was the first time that China, the world’s largest polluter, outlined its goal of completely reducing emissions.
Calling the shift from carbon “trends in our time,” Xi also promised to raise the share of non-fossil fuel sources in energy consumption to over 30%, and six times the capacity of wind and solar compared to 2020.
At a critical moment in the global battle against climate change at a time when the US has abandoned its efforts to reduce emissions, China’s goals fail to some extent a distance that aligns with the Paris Agreement goals, some analysts said.
“Unfortunately, this is a very unfortunate thing. This goal does not limit emissions. It is already below what China is likely to achieve under current climate policy,” Bill Hare, CEO of Berlin-based policy research institute Climate Analytics, told Al Jazeera.
“China can do much better than this, and it almost reflects all its ambitions possible.”
The Centre for Energy and Clean Air (CREA) estimates that China will need to cut its emissions by about 30% to align with the Paris Agreement.
The contract, adopted in 2015 by 195 countries, requires that the average global temperature rise be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), above pre-industrial levels.
China’s climate action is considered particularly important following the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under President Donald Trump. President Donald Trump used a UN speech this week to call the scientific consensus on climate change “the biggest fraud ever committed worldwide.”
“China’s overwhelming headline targets are missing out on opportunities to demonstrate true leadership,” Li Shuo, director of the Chinese Climate Hub at the Institute for Policy Research in Asia, told Al Jazeera.
“Beijing has chosen to move forward when science demands a full sprint. Unfortunately, the pledge will still place the world on a path to catastrophic climate impact.”
With Xi’s announcement, key questions about emission targets, such as how Beijing defines peak emissions, have left unanswered targets.
While many climate experts believe China’s emissions have already peaked or will do so this year, some observers have warned that the trend is being driven by a decline in business activity during the Covid-19 pandemic, just like the deployment of renewable energy.
China has had a paradoxical impact on global efforts to address climate change.
Although it is responsible for about a third of global emissions, the country is also a leader in green energy.
According to the International Energy Agency, China produces around 80% of the world’s solar panels and 70% of electric vehicles.
According to Ember, a London-based energy think tank, the country manufactures around 60% of wind turbines around the world.
At the same time, China continues to invest heavily in coal.
Last year, construction of about 100 Gigawatts (GW) of the most halted coal power projects in a decade began, according to CREA.
“China’s new pledge is clearly not as good as we can expect. Despite his previous promise to strictly control President XI’s new coal power, the country has just approved more projects in nearly a decade than at any point,” Andreas Sieber, associate director of 350.org’s policy and campaign, told Al Jazeera.
“The goals announced today are vague in base year and are conservative with renewable energy, leaving plenty of room for continuous emissions growth from the coal-heavy sector.”
Still, climate experts hope that China’s goals could be a signal for more transformative change.
Yao Zhe, a Beijing-based policy advisor in Greenpeace East Asia, said China’s announcement has not met expectations, but Beijing tends to set a target that “confidently offers.”
“What’s full of hope is that actual decarbonisation of the Chinese economy is likely to exceed paper targets,” Yao said in a statement responding to the target, adding that her organization’s latest analysis showed that emissions from China’s electricity sector could peak this year.
In a world “increasingly driven by self-interest,” China is in a stronger position than most people to promote climate action, said Li of the Asian Association.
“The country has emerged as a global clean technology superpower, and its dominant role in the sector will surpass its current targets,” he said.
“As time goes by, this could push China into a more active role on the international stage.”
