President Donald Trump’s administration said it caused cold burns to Trump’s ice cream lover Joe Biden, leading the US ice cream industry to economically rocky roads.
“The US had an ice cream trade surplus in 2020 under President Trump’s leadership, but that surplus was a $40.6 million trade deficit under President Biden’s clock,” the US Trade Representative wrote to X on July 20.
The US ice cream trade balance changed dramatically in 2021, the year Biden took office. Trade balances, which formally reversed in 2022, have remained intact since.
However, industry experts have warned that US ice cream imports account for a small portion of US ice cream consumed in the US, and that exports make up a small portion of all US ice cream produced.
Trade changes were driven primarily by import jumps. Exports have largely remained unchanged since 2020.
And cherry on top? Experts say there is disagreement about whether products classified as “ice cream” also affect data. For example, data referenced by the US trade representative office also includes “edible ice.” This has stated that some experts (and dairy defensemen) are not qualified as ice cream.
Edible ice removal is shown to have been “the US is a significant margin ($193 million) or +85% larger net exporter,” International Dairy Food Association Vice President Matt Herrick told Politifact in an email.
Ice cream imports create a US trade deficit
From 1995 to 2020, the US had an ice cream trade surplus ranging from about $20 million to about $160 million, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, an online economic data platform. Long-standing clients include Mexico, followed by Saudi Arabia and Canada.
In 2021, that surplus almost disappeared, and in 2022 and 2023, the US achieved ice cream trade deficits of $92 million and $33 million, respectively.
At first glance, importing frozen foods does not seem practical.
“It’s expensive to transport refrigerated and frozen products overseas,” said Betty Benningat, dairy economist at High Ground Dairy. “Mexico is the leading destination for US dairy exports.”
However, many US and European companies have entered the global market.
“Consumers may want a style of style from other countries or a particular treat that is known,” Herrick said.
Italy, the birthplace of gelato, is currently the largest source of imported ice cream in the United States. Italian ice cream was imported in 2023, last year, where data was available, ranging from around $12 million to almost $65 million between 2020 and 2021 alone.
This is partly due to increased consumer demand for specialized pints. A report from global market research firm Mordor Intelligence says that “product innovation and premiumization” is becoming important in the US ice cream industry.
“This trend is particularly evident in the offering of premium pints and the growth of individually wrapped novelties.
The US produces far more ice cream than imports and exports
To reach the pint, the majority of ice cream consumed in the US is made there rather than overseas.
The Trump administration is cherry-picking statistics from some of the few slivers of the US ice cream industry.
US ice cream makers produced 13.1 billion gallons of ice cream in 2024, according to data from the US Agriculture sector. This includes regular ice cream, low-fat, non-fat ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt.
In comparison, the US imported 2.35 million gallons of traditional ice cream in 2024. That’s 0.18% of the amount produced domestically, Herrick said.
The US exported 16.4 million gallons of its domestic production. This is also 1.31 billion gallons of ice cream, just over 1%.
Factorization of ice cream mixes except for “edible ice” products
Another warning about international trade data: it does not include a “mix” that distorts the total, said Herrick of the International Dairy Food Association.
The mix is used to make ice cream shakes and soft serve products, making up a significant portion of the exports of ice cream in the US. “Including data points like these will change the image very significantly,” Herrick said. “It is true that traditional ice cream and edible ice exports have seen a decline in exports, but the same cannot be said about mix exports.”
He said that milk-based drink exports in the United States have increased by 621% over the past five years. In 2024, the US exported nearly $305 million in mix to the European Union.
Americans and Dairy-based Ice Cream: Will centuries-old love melt?
The White House has driven out a large number of ice cream followers.
George Washington stocks ice cream making equipment in the capital. Thomas Jefferson is believed to be the first American to record an ice cream recipe. Ronald Reagan declared the July National Ice Cream Month in 1984.
Biden, often spotted with a cone in his hand, declared in 2016 while visiting Jenni’s amazing ice cream headquarters. “My name is Joe Biden and I love ice cream.”
But the usual dairy ice cream consumption – the category that does not contain frozen yogurt, sorbet, or non-fat and low-fat ice cream has been running for years.
In 1975, Americans ate an average of 18.2 pounds of ice cream per year. That number had fallen to 11.7 pounds by 2023.
Our arbitration
The US Trade Bureau praised the summer scoop. “The United States had an ice cream trade surplus in 2020 under President Trump’s leadership, but that surplus has resulted in a $40.6 million trade deficit under President Biden’s watch.”
It is accurate that the US ice cream trade balance had a profit for a quarter century before turning negative while Biden was president.
However, the statement from the US trade representative shows that the US ice cream deficit emerges from the corn troll.
There are three contexts in this trade Sunday.
This change was driven primarily by import jumps. Exports have largely remained unchanged since 2020.
The import and export of US ice cream is a small amount compared to domestic production.
There is also disagreement about which products should or should not be included in the dataset. If you exclude edible ice products and factor them with ice cream mix, you’ll leave a surplus in the US.
The statement is accurate, but I rate it as almost true as it requires sprinkling with explanations and additional details.
Louis Jacobson contributed to this report.
