For decades, the threat of a nuclear conflict between the US and the Soviet Union has been on humanity – and sometimes superpowers were framed towards the brink. Cuban missile crisis.
However, starting in the 1970s, American and Soviet leaders began taking measures to eliminate emissions, leading to a few important treaties, including the 1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Military Treaty.
The agreement ended in 2019 after the US withdrawal. Tuesday, Russia It was announced that it was over Voluntary restrictions on the deployment of missiles covered by the agreement.
This leaves one nuclear weapons agreement still around Moscow and Washington: A new start says experts will be on the ropes and will expire in February anyway.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will be attending a meeting on Tuesday, August 5, 2025 with Igor Schwarov, chairman of the VEB.RF of the Russian State Development Corporation, the Moscow Kremlin.
The end of the nuclear weapons agreement between the US and Russia does not necessarily make nuclear war more likely, but “certainly it doesn’t make it less likely,” said Alexander Bolfras, a nuclear weapons management expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Moscow and Washington are signatories of multilateral international treaties aimed at preventing the spread and use of nuclear weapons; An increasingly unstable relationship between countriescombined with a declining treaty, many people are worried.
Atomic bomb survivors The drop in the US 80 years ago in Japan’s Hiroshima city on Wednesday expressed its deterrent dissatisfaction with increasing support from global leaders on nuclear weapons.
In this photo, released by the Russian Ministry of Defense press on May 21, 2024, the Russian troops loaded Iskander missiles during tactical nuclear weapons training in a closed-door location in Russia. (Applications, Russian Ministry of Defense Press via File)
We and Russia have far fewer warheads than they did decades ago
In 1986, the Soviet Union had more than 40,000 nuclear warheads, while the United States had more than 20,000, according to the Federation of American Scientists.
A series of arms management agreements have significantly reduced these stockpiles.
The federation estimates that Russia has 5,459 undeveloped and undeveloped nuclear warheads in March 2025, with 5,177 in the US. Together, it is about 87% of the world’s nuclear weapons.
On December 8, 1987, file photo, US President Ronald Reagan, right, two leaders shook hands with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev after signing the Intermediate Range Nuclear Army Treaty to eliminate medium-range missiles at a ceremony in the White House East Room in Washington. (AP Photo/Bob Daugherty, file)
Washington and Moscow have signed a series of important treaties
In May 1972, ten years after the Cuban missile crisis, the US and the Soviet Union signed a strategic limiting consultation for Salt I, the Salt I, the first treaty to limit the number of missiles, bombers and submarines carrying nuclear weapons.
At the same time, they also signed the Anti-Bullet Missile Treaty or ABM to limit missile defense systems that protect them from nuclear strikes.
Then in 1987, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and US President Ronald Reagan chopped the INF treaty and banned missiles in the range of 500-5,500 kilometers (310-3,410 miles).
President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement during his first term, citing the Russian violations that Moscow denied. The White House also said it put the US at a strategic disadvantage against China and Iran, but neither of them are parties to the agreement, each with over 1,000 infrance missiles.
The Kremlin initially said it would comply with that provision, but ended its pledge on Tuesday.
Even before that, Moscow tried its new test Medium range Oleshnik Hi-sonic missile In Ukraine in November. Russian President Vladimir Putin said these missiles will be deployed to Russian neighbours and allies later this year.
Meanwhile, the launch of the Nuclear Weapon Reduction Treaty in 1991 reduced the strategic arsenals of US and Russian nuclear warheads, as well as the strategic arsenals of missiles, bombers and submarines carrying them. It has expired ever since. Another treaty, Start II, was signed, but never came into effect.
In 2002, after September 11, 2001, then President of the United States George W. Bush withdrew from the ABM agreement. This was attacked due to concerns that the US’s ability to attack, including countries such as Iran and North Korea, is limited.
Russia strongly opposed the move, fearing that it would allow the United States to develop its ability to erode nuclear deterrents.
The last remaining bilateral treaty signed in April 2010 – A New Start – aims to set limits on deployed nuclear weapons and launchers and conduct on-site inspections.
Cedarth Kaushal, a senior military science researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said it was “functionally dead.”
February 5, 2026, it will already expire in Russia Participation has been suspended After the invasion of Ukraine, ground inspections of Russian nuclear sites have been suspended. However, Moscow said it would continue to adhere to the limits of the agreement against nuclear forces.
President Donald Trump will answer questions from reporters after signing an executive order regarding the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics at the South Court Auditorium in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House campus in Washington on Tuesday, August 5, 2028. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Russia and the US are not the only players
In particular, the INF and the new start treaty led to “serious ground inspections” that reduced tensions in Europe, Volfras said.
Experts said their end could limit tensions between the two Cold War enemies.
However, they also reflect a wider interest in traditional armed midrange missiles, said experts point to the planned US deployment of such missiles into Europe and the Pacific, as well as the use of Israeli and Iranian missiles during the recent war.
In the near future, a new bilateral agreement on nuclear weapons between the US and Russia is “highly unlikely” because there is no level of trust needed to negotiate and follow the Arms Control Agreement, Kaushal of RUSI said.
And the US is increasingly seeing other threats. Both the Bush and Trump administrations have withdrawn from the treaty with Russia. This partially withdrew by citing concerns that the agreement did not impose restrictions on the accumulation of nuclear weapons in other countries.
As China becomes more and more US and Russia’s nuclear forces, Kaushal said it can drive a “competitive spiral” that allows Washington to develop more nuclear weapons, building up traditional weapons to counter what is perceived as a threat from Beijing.
The increase in US mid- or long-range weapons could drive Russia to increase its own nuclear weapons, he said.
However, even if the Cold War Treaty is over, Cold War thinking may endure.
The mutually guaranteed potential for destruction may still demand restraint, experts said.
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