Please be quiet, but a promoted team may not be destined to be relegated this season.
6/6 returned to the previous two campaigns, with newly promoted team flicking their hair and being sent back to landing parachute pay fuel for the championship. But this season already suggests things could be different.
Sunderland sits in seventh place, with both Leeds and Burnley outside the relegation zone, with Black Cats in particular examples of how they stay in an increasingly unbalanced division.
Have a big (and smart) summer, especially if you’re a playoff winner
The 24-point gap between Sunderland and automatically promoted Sideleys and Burnley is bigger than the previous two seasons combined, indicating that they have come back even more in terms of team quality.
Leeds spent about £99 million and Burnley spent £112 million, while the Blackcats were the ninth largest spender in the Premier League, led by the heirs of the global commodity trading empire, Cyrill Louis Dreyfus.
They spend smarter and instead of spending a lot on the famous Husbeen, they buy players who improve the quality of their teams and provide a definitive platform if they fall.
For the experience, they brought in Granit Xhaka – an upgrade of the original linked Jordan Henderson – and even when they returned Marc Guiu to Chelsea, they quickly acted and signed Brian Brobbey, number 9 on Ajax.
The quality gap between the Premier League and the Championship is only growing, requiring a mandatory full revamp for newly promoted teams.
Defense, defense, defense
Our American cousins like to say “defense victory championships,” but on this side of the pond, defense will keep you away from the championship.
Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton were the top scorers in the championship when they rose, but in the case of Ipswich and Southampton they also shipped a considerable number of goals.
That offensive first approach is necessary to advance from the second division, but it can be difficult to transform into the side where other teams can stay in the Premier League where they have better attackers.
Leicester conceded 80 goals last year, Ipswich 82 and Southampton 86, with the next worst being a wolf with 69.
Scoring goals are certainly one of the issues that need to be solved, but keeping them out is definitely even more important.
So far, the promoted team is not the boys everyone expects, and Sunderland in particular is defensively solid, acknowledging just four goals.
After the same number of games last year, Ipswich and Leicester put in eight, while Southampton shipped out nine.
This is an area where both Burnley and Leeds need to acknowledge and focus on eight goals and seven goals respectively.
Find a way to score and seize a chance
It’s obvious to say, but take it when you create opportunities.
Sunderland so far, the campaign has scored six goals at 4.5. Southampton’s XG was 33.2 last year, with only 26 points.
The Premier League is not the kind of league where opportunities are delivered over and over, so if the promoted side has the ambition to get up, they have to take the chance, as well as score a goal away from their preferred style.
Ipswich in particular guilty of trying to score a perfect goal and was stuck at the edge of the opposition’s penalty area. Their most effective move came at the counter where they either used the winger or launched it to Liam Dellup.
Corners and long throws are very “returned to” at this point, and these situations often level the playing field when it comes to the individual talent of each player.
Pray to the gods of soccer equipment
When Ipswich returned to Top Flight 20 years later, they were greeted on a visit to Liverpool on the first day before their remote trip to Etihad.
Now some say it’s not a problem when faced with a particular enemy, but that’s absolutely. And the start of Sunderland this year is proof of that.
The home game against West Ham gave them a 3-0 victory with confidence to start the year, and even if they should have done better against fellow promoted Sideburn Lee in the second game, they won at home against Brentford, who is gaining a new manager and grip.
Plus, the draw against Palace and Sunderland has Sunderland’s seventh place in the draw, giving him a great sense of confidence in what will come.
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I hope there are three worse teams than you
Another element of luck outside of your control is the fate of the people around you.
Last season there were 17 comfortable teams in the division. This season brings a different story.
West Ham, poor last season but not drawn into relegation scrap, is now swirling the drain, but the wolves have not yet scored points.
Aston Villa is the one who expects to find the foot in the end, but the worse the run, the more promoted teams need to build the buffer.
Nottingham Forest is also something to watch with management changes in mind, and Brentford has a new, immature man at the helm.
It’s far more competition for these three fate places.
Be good fortune
The final variables have been promoted and the fan simply means luck is on your side. By being promoted, you will put you in a position where cards can stack against you. Every club you face has more money, more experience in this division and better chances of survival paper.
There are a few things you can control, but there are also a huge number of variables in soccer that make predictions stupid.
There is a long list of moments where referee decisions, injuries, freak goals – define seasons and hope that promoted clubs are on the far right of them.
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