WASHINGTON (AP) — Led. Governor Gavin NewsomCalifornia Democrats are hurtling toward a new congressional map that could flip up to five seats in the U.S. House of Representatives from Republican to Democratic control. But first, voters need to approve it.
California voters head to the polls Tuesday with just one yes or no question on their ballots. If Prop. 50 passes, a new congressional map would be implemented. Passed the state legislature in Augustover the next three election cycles. After the 2030 U.S. Census, the state’s independent redistricting commission will resume drawing maps.
Politicians across the country Congressional voting district redistricting This is typically done only once every 10 years, after each census, and is done to give one’s party’s candidates an advantage in next year’s elections. The national battle over partisan gerrymandering has begun in Texas, pushed by President Donald Trump. Republican-controlled states adopted a new map It will be possible in August flip five A Democratic-leaning U.S. House of Representatives seat. California was the second state to take action. Between the time the California Legislature passed the map and this election, missouri and north carolina Both have new maps. Other states may continue soon.
The outcome of this ballot measure could help determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections, with Republicans seeking to buck the historic pattern of the president’s party losing seats in midterm elections. The Republican lead is small. Heading into Tuesday’s election, Republicans control 219 seats to Democrats’ 213, with three seats vacant.
Yes, if Proposition 50 is approved. Democrats can control up to 48 people. The party currently holds 43 of California’s 52 seats in the state Legislature. In some cases, reconfigured districts will span across California, consolidating regions into one. Conservative-leaning Northern California and Marin County, a liberal coastal hub north of San Francisco. In other regions, district boundaries will remain unchanged or undergo only minor adjustments.
Partisans rallied on both sides of the bill, raising well over $200 million in donations.
If support for the ballot measure breaks down along partisan lines (though it’s not a guarantee), the Democratic “yes” side would likely pass it. Democrats have registered more than 4.5 million voters statewide, and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris won California by about 20 percentage points last fall.
Opponents of the bill, which includes key Republican officials in the state from former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to potentially affected lawmakers, report raising more than $80 million. National Republicans in action: The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC dedicated to electing Republicans to the U.S. House of Representatives, has committed $5 million.
The “No” campaign also benefited from high-profile government involvement. Former Governor Arnold SchwarzeneggerHe was one of the last Republicans to hold statewide office and is a longtime opponent of gerrymandering. They frame the initiative as a plan by Democrats to increase their influence and bypass an independent, voter-approved redistricting commission.
But the “No” campaign is less well-funded than the opposition. The “yes” side raised about $138 million, according to data from the California Secretary of State’s office. Data from AdImpact, a nonpartisan ad tracker, also shows that ad spending on the “against” side is declining. It slowed down to a trickle. For the election.
Newsom and Democratic lawmakers across the country and states have been deeply involved in supporting the bill. Mr. Newsom contributed $2.6 million of his own campaign funds, while House Majority PAC, an independent spending group that supports Democratic House candidates, put in about $15 million.
The Associated Press does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if there is no scenario in which a successor candidate closes the gap. Even if a race is not called, The Associated Press will continue to report on newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. At that time, The Associated Press will clarify that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
There is no automatic recount in California. Any registered voter in California can request a recount, but the cost must be paid by the voter requesting the recount or the campaign committee the voter represents. The Associated Press may declare a winner in a race subject to a recount if it determines the lead is too large to change the outcome through a recount or legal challenge.
Here’s what you can expect.
election day
California’s special election will be held on Tuesday, but voting by mail has been available for several weeks. Voting ends at 8pm PT or 11pm ET.
What does the ballot say?
AP will provide voting results and declare winners of redistricting ballot measures.
Who can vote?
Any registered California voter may participate in the special election.
What will turnout and early voting look like?
As of September 5, there were approximately 23.1 million registered voters in California. Of these, 45% were Democrats and 25% were Republicans. Approximately 5.2 million voters were not registered with any political party.
Voter turnout for the 2021 gubernatorial recall, an off-year election in which the only statewide vote on the ballot, was about 58%.
As of October 28, a total of 4.74 million votes had been cast by Election Day. See AP early voting tracker For the latest updates.
How long does it usually take to count votes?
In the 2024 presidential election, The Associated Press first reported results in California at 11:12 p.m. ET, 12 minutes after polls closed. Vote counting ended at 7 a.m. ET that night, with approximately 54% of the total votes counted.
Have you arrived yet?
As of Tuesday, there are 364 days until the 2026 midterm elections and 1,099 days until the 2028 general election.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the 2025 election. https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2025/.
