WASHINGTON (AP) – Even for agencies used to criticism, the debate over major Republican tax violations and spending cuts this summer has been tough Congressional Budget Bureau.
It was determined that “it’s notorious for making that mistake.” Speaker microphone johnson. “Make the same mistake” was a retreat from House majority leader Steve Scullies. and President Donald Trump They dismissed the CBO as “very hostile.”
For CBO Director Philip Swargel, the “incoming fire” he calls it is simply part of the job.
“We’re just trying to get it right and let Congress and the state know,” he said in an interview with the Associated Press. “There’s no agenda here.”
Taking care of generating nonpartisan analysis of Congress, CBO Swagel and expert staff will assess the impact of the law on economic growth and the country’s finances, and generate “scores” in Washington terminology. Both major political parties often challenge the findings of institutions, especially when their top priorities are at stake.
“Sometimes it’s noise, sometimes it’s not. But we just adjust it. Here we do our job,” Swagel said. “What I often care about is making sure our work is accurate.”
This is the modest approach Swagel has maintained in the CBO since 2019, when Congressional leaders appointed him as supervisor after serving in both Republican and Democrat administrations. A trade economist, Swagel brings curiosity and respect to his work and a gentle approach. His government knowledge served in the White House, the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve and the Economic Advisory Council of the International Monetary Fund.
“The challenge of doing analysis now is that the changes we see in our economy are really huge,” Swagel said.
From the Trump administration Large-scale deportation planTo an unprecedented implementation Sweeping Tax Countries around the world have passed large tax and spending cuts to law this summer, making it even more difficult to assess the trajectory of the US economy.
Swagel recently sat down with the Associated Press and spoke at length about his analysis from his institution, the future of the national qualification program, and pressure to not be biased when the data itself is at risk of being politicized.
How Trump’s tariffs are holding back the economic model
Trump’s drastic tariff plans pose challenges to the CBO’s standard model for evaluating trade.
Baseline tariffs in all countries and higher prices on Trump’s “worst criminals” list are different from “we’ve seen it for over 100 years,” Swagel said. This is a dramatic shift from the low-tension era that has existed since World War II. “We’ll look carefully to see if these models are still applied or if they’re such a large tariff, but do they have an effect that we’re not counting?” he said.
So far, CBO estimates that tariffs can be reduced National deficit $4 trillion over the next decade will help offset the rise in deficits IT projects arise It was passed this year due to a big bill from Republicans. “It’s a huge impact,” Swagel said.
The CBO also expects Trump’s tariffs to cause inflation for about two years, Swagel said it will cause prices to rise for businesses and customers. However, he says that their effects will be temporary.
“When tariffs rise and tariffs rise as prices rise, inflation increases, but prices reach higher levels and stabilize,” he said. “And the effects of inflation subside.”
Immigration cuts down a variety of ways
Swagel said there are “pros and disadvantages” when assessing how immigration affects the economy.
“Immigration has joined our workforce. That means higher GDP. That means more income and lower deficits,” Swagel said. “But of course there are many issues related to immigration,” particularly “more immigrants are putting more financial pressure on state and local governments, schools, police, healthcare systems and more.”
“So for the federal government, immigration is financially positive,” he said, “but for state and local governments, that’s the opposite.”
Trump’s plan Massive deportation and other hard-line immigration measures In a recent report, the CBO said about 320,000 people will be excluded from the US over the next decade. They also predicted that the US population would grow slowly than previously expected.
Trump’s Tax and Expenditure Act was passed by Congress Signed in JulyIt contains approximately $150 billion Increases deportation The next four years.
Swagel says it’s not his place to say how immigration laws should be created.
“Our role is to say what the impact of the budget is,” he said. “It’s about the political system understanding ‘Well, what’s the right choice for the country?” ”
Tensions about Social Security and Medicare
Swagel said the US qualification program is “all part of the country’s difficult financial trajectory.” But the biggest obstacle to doing something about it is that “the decision doesn’t need to be made immediately.”
Gobroke date For Medicare and Social Security, it is currently in 2033 and 2034. These dates, the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund and the Social Security Trust Fund. Those that cover the recipients of old age and disability will no longer be able to pay the full profit. Latest Reports From the program trustee.
While they are approaching soon, bankruptcy dates are lifelong for lawmakers.
“We have a stable economy, a growing economy,” Swagel said. “The economy is slowing down in the second half of 2025, but the economy is still growing and creating jobs. So there’s no crisis.”
“We need to make difficult decisions,” he said.
Criticism of CBO’s data
The CBO faces a more aggressive attack on Trump’s second term analysis, often amplified by Congressional Republicans. Earlier this year, Trump called the CBO a “very hostile” organization.
Swagel downplayed the tension, saying, “Our partnership with the administrative department is smooth and routine, and when we evaluate the law, all laws call the administrative agency.”
“The CBO has this incoming fire,” says Swagel, who says it’s part of the political process. “I understand that kind of criticism is a political effort in the eyes of people.”
Unlike many other roles in the government, the CBO director cannot be fired by the president. That person can only be excluded by the Congress.
Swagel said his office work remains as important as ever.
“It’s important for the country to have a group of analysts who don’t have an opinion. They’re just saying, ‘Here’s the facts,'” he said.
“We haven’t told Congress what to do,” Swagel said. “I’m not saying if something is good or bad. I’m saying, ‘This costs money. There’s something here.” And that’s our role. ”
