RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Former President barack obama Saturday’s rally will be led by Democrats. Run for governor of Virginia and New Jerseyis gathering voters ahead of midterm elections that could change the mood of the nation 10 months after Donald Trump takes office as president for his second term and a year before his inauguration.
Republicans in those states are also struggling in the final weekend of campaigning before Tuesday’s election, but lack national star power.
And on the West Coast, advocates in California are making the final push ahead of a statewide referendum on whether to redraw the state’s congressional maps in favor of Democrats. The effort, backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, is part of a nationwide redistricting battle that began when President Trump called on Republican-run states to help maintain a friendly House majority in 2026.
Obama, the Democrat who succeeded Trump when he first took office, is scheduled to appear on his first Saturday with Virginia’s Democratic gubernatorial candidate. abigail spanberger in norfolk. President Obama then traveled to New Jersey for an evening rally. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill In Newark. Both events produced the nation’s first black president in areas where black turnout is key to Democratic victory.
Republican candidates in Virginia winsome r searsthe current lieutenant governor, and New Jersey Republican Jack CiatarelliThe former state legislators also have busy itineraries.
Virginia’s election ensures the election of the first female federal leader since the nation’s founding in 1776. If elected, Earl Sears would become the first black woman to be elected governor of the state.
Democrats need high black turnout
House Speaker Don Scott, D-Virginia, brushed aside questions about whether Mr. Obama was needed to help turn out black voters, who are key to the Democratic coalition of voters, saying Mr. Obama’s popularity transcends racial lines.
“Black people and white people are inspired by his leadership. They’re inspired by the way he governed themselves,” said Scott, Virginia’s first black speaker of the state House of Representatives.
Mr. Obama’s campaign moves underscore how popular the 64-year-old remains among his party’s base, even after more than eight years out of the White House. But it underscores the fact that Republicans control every lever of federal power, Democratic governors and legislative leaders are vying for national persona, and Democrats lack a current top leader or representative.
And Scott’s protests aside, the trip underscores the pressure on Democrats to maximize diverse coalitions in 2024 after President Trump chipped away at the party’s usual advantage among black and Hispanic voters. Although Trump lost Virginia and New Jersey, he narrowed the gap from his 2020 loss to Democrat Joe Biden in both states. Republicans believe New Jersey in particular is ripe for Ciattarelli to continue that trend.
Trump is not present, but is participating in the conversation.
President Trump endorsed Ciatarelli and said he would support the Republican candidate for Virginia governor, without mentioning Earl Sears by name. The president held a telephone meeting with Mr. Ciattarelli. Despite making multiple trips to his golf resort in New Jersey in recent months, he has not campaigned in person for either candidate.
This reflects the tightrope Republicans must walk. Mr. Trump remains deeply popular among the most conservative voters, but his standing with other voters is more volatile.
Mr. Spanberger and Mr. Sherrill tried to take advantage of that.
“Jack never says a bad word about the president,” Sheryl charged in the debate with Ciatarelli.
“No matter who sits in the White House, my job is to stand up for the 9.3 million people of this state, and I will do that,” Ciattarelli countered. He then emphasized his ties to President Trump. “It’s best to have a relationship with the person occupying the White House,” he said.
Earl Sears is aligned with the president, and according to AdImpact data, Spanberger’s biggest ad investments are in spots that try to connect Earl Sears with Trump.
The lieutenant governor is scheduled to lead Republican get-out-the-vote rallies in small, heavily Republican towns on Saturday, first in Abingdon in southwest Virginia and then in Perthville in the state’s northernmost tip near the Pennsylvania border.
Ciatarelli’s itinerary will include stops in Woodbridge, Westfield and Fairfield, a visit to the suburbs of Newark, and then across the state to areas with much lower population densities and heavily Republican voters.
Economy and shutdowns cast a shadow on gubernatorial race
Spanberger and Sherrill, center-left Democrats who helped Democrats take back the House in the 2018 midterm elections during President Trump’s first term, have emphasized economic arguments.
They promised to tackle rising consumer costs and criticized President Trump for failing to lower prices as promised during his 2024 campaign. But in New Jersey, where outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy has led the state for two terms, Ciatarelli blamed Democrats for rising energy costs.
Democratic candidates blasted Republicans’ federal domestic policies and tax cuts. In Virginia, Spanberger highlighted the Trump administration’s Office of Government Efficiency and, to a lesser extent, the ongoing federal shutdown. Both have a disproportionate impact in states with more than 300,000 federal employees, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Earl Sears tried to pin the blame for the government shutdown on Spanberger, arguing that the former congressman should use his influence with Virginia’s Democratic U.S. senators. Both senators voted against the Republican spending extension bill as Democrats demand that Republicans act on pressing health care cost cuts.
Additionally, this contest may provide some clues as to whether social issues matter less to voters than in previous elections. Mr. Spanberger and Mr. Sherrill have expressed support for abortion rights, and Mr. Spanberger supports abortion rights in the last southern state to make abortion widely available. Earl Sears has pushed back by focusing on transgender policy, trying to frame Spanberger as out of step with mainstream voters, similar to how President Trump used the issue against Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024.
California will have an immediate and medium-term impact
While the results in Virginia and New Jersey are just a signpost for the 2026 midterm elections, California will have the most direct impact on the national situation.
Voters are deciding whether to bypass a bipartisan redistricting commission and approve a new congressional map aimed at sending five more Democrats to Washington.
This is a direct countermeasure to neutralize the already approved Texas plan designed to tip Texas’ five seats toward Republicans. And more states followed suit, years after the normal post-census redistricting process, with the national map itself in flux during an unprecedented mid-decade period of turmoil.
Republicans started this session with a narrow 220-215 edge in the House. This means that just a few seats could decide whether Mr. Trump enjoys complete Republican control in Washington during his term, or faces a new Democratic majority that, following the pattern of his first term, will block his policy agenda, launch investigations into his administration, and consider articles of impeachment.
