WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump He was not subtle about how much he wants Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalize relations.
He strongly advocated for an extension of his first term. Abraham Accords The project, which formally establishes commercial and diplomatic relations between Israel and three Arab countries, is key to his plan to bring long-term stability to the Middle East as a fragile truce between the two countries. Hamas in Israel and Gaza continue to hold.
Promoting normalization is expected to be high on the agenda when President Trump entertains the Saudi crown prince. Mohammed bin Salman for a meeting on Tuesday Glamorous White House visit.
“I hope Saudi Arabia will sign the Abraham Accords soon,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Friday, en route to Florida for the weekend.
But President Trump’s optimism that a U.S.-brokered deal could come soon has been tempered by a more sober internal assessment. Saudi Arabia is unlikely to sign a deal anytime soon, but there is cautious optimism that a deal can be struck before the end of President Trump’s second term, according to three senior administration officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
The first Trump administration and its successor administration, The Biden administration tried to persuade Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords. But those hopes were dashed first by opposition from the crown prince’s father, King Salman, during President Trump’s first term, and then by Prince Mohammed himself after the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel that sparked the Gaza war.
The crown prince, widely known as MBS, has suggested he may be more flexible than his father on the issue, but a guarantee of a path to Palestinian statehood remains a condition, which Israel fiercely opposes.
President Trump may try to convince Crown Prince Mohammed of the American leadership’s claims. 20-point Gaza peace plan It represents such a path. But this risks angering Israelis and cooperation in the effort, especially if a Republican president promises a detailed schedule of standards to be met.
One of the officials said the best outcome of this week’s talks from the U.S. perspective might be for Saudi Arabia to acknowledge President Trump’s plan as a starting point for an eventual Palestinian state and agree publicly to consider joining the deal.
Saudi Arabia wants a path to a Palestinian state
President Trump has predicted in recent weeks that once Saudi Arabia signs the deal, “everyone” in the Arab world will join. He insisted that Saudi Arabia would also participate because the ceasefire in Gaza remains in place.
“A lot of people are joining the Abraham Accords right now, and hopefully we will too.” I’m going to get Saudi Arabia. “I’m not in the business of lobbying,” President Trump jokingly declared in a speech to business leaders this month with Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Washington, Princess Reema Bandar Al Saud, as a special guest.
President Trump said his optimism in the Middle East is influenced by what he sees as seismic shifts in power relations in the Middle East that have created an opportunity for regional leaders to pursue lasting peace.
Iran, a common enemy of Saudi Arabia and Israel, has seen its myriad proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen dwindle after two years of conflict in the Middle East, and Tehran’s nuclear program is on the back burner. US airstrikes in June. Trump argues that these factors helped create the conditions for Saudi Arabia and Israel to reach an agreement.
Nevertheless, President Trump’s public confidence remains difficult to reconcile with the Saudi position that any normalization agreement must first establish a clear path to a Palestinian state.
But the trip could be an opportunity for Trump to reassure the crown prince about his ultimate goal, especially if he can show acceptance of the need for Palestinian statehood.
“Trump’s openness and even support for a Palestinian state could go a long way toward his hopes of nudging MBS toward normalization,” said John Hanna, a former national security adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney.
But President Trump is certainly battling some headwinds in persuading Prince Mohammed to go along with him, at least in the short term.
The searing images of the Israel-Hamas war are still fresh, and rebuilding the devastated territory will take years of effort.
Israel and Hamas are slowly moving towards returning the remains of Gaza’s last hostage. But with several key decisions on the horizon, including the disarmament of Hamas, the establishment of an international security force in the region, and the establishment of an alternative governance structure for a post-Hamas Gaza, the delicate ceasefire could be undermined if things go sideways.
in progress Violence by Israeli settlers against Palestinians Regional mistrust of Israel in the West Bank further increased.
“It will be very difficult for MBS to move in this direction as long as we continue to see the devastation and horrific scenes of Gaza on Saudi television,” said Jonathan Schanzer, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish think tank in Washington. “Having said that, I also believe that there are things Saudi Arabia can do to advance the normalization process across the region, as it has done in the past.”
It seems unlikely that any fighter jet deals will take place during the visit.
The crown prince is expected to arrive at the White House with a wish list that includes receiving formal commitments from President Trump defining the scope of U.S. military protection for Saudi Arabia and an agreement to buy the U.S.-made F-35 fighter jet, one of the world’s most advanced aircraft.
But as the White House finalizes preparations for the trip, it seems unlikely that President Trump will be ready to sign a fighter jet deal, administration officials said. But they pointed out that Mr. Trump has a track record of being unpredictable and could decide to approve the sale if the crown prince somehow persuades him.
Officials said the administration remains wary of undermining Israel’s “qualitative military advantage” over its neighbors, especially now that President Trump is relying on Israeli support for the success of his Gaza peace plan.
Another long-standing concern, which also derailed a potential similar sale to the United Arab Emirates, is that F-35 technology could be stolen or somehow transferred to China, which has close ties to both the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Hanna, a former Cheney aide who is now a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security, said the price of normalization for the crown prince has only risen in the aftermath of Gaza. But Hanna said it would be unwise for Trump to relinquish his influence.
“I think it would be foolish not to insist that the eventual integration of these aircraft into the Saudi order of war will lead to normalization and more fundamental and lasting changes in Saudi-Israeli relations and the regional security landscape,” Hanna said.
