LOS ANGELES (AP) — Less than two weeks from Election Day, the fight over California’s new House map that could eliminate up to five Republican seats is starting to look like a lopsided battle, with opponents running out of campaign ads and options.
The dynamics of the race can still change, and the question on the ballot is history Some strange results in California. But industry data shows Republicans and other critics of the measure have sharply reduced TV ad spending, the vast state’s main pipeline to voters.
The map, promoted by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, is aimed at increasing the party’s chances of regaining the House majority in 2026 and countering Republican efforts to pick up seats in Texas and other states.
vote It started It ended earlier this month and will end on November 4th.
More than 1.5 million Democratic mail-in ballots were cast. returned So far, Republicans have outnumbered voters by about 853,000 votes, which is not surprising in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republican voters nearly 2-to-1.
Democrats and other allies have booked nearly $9 million in ad buys across broadcast, cable and radio, according to data compiled by ad tracker AdImpact. But opponents have virtually no time on their hands, even though this data doesn’t include popular streaming services like Hulu or YouTube or email advertising.
Supporters have aired nearly $70 million in ads so far, compared to about $31 million for opponents, according to AdImpact.
The outcome of the fight over so-called Proposition 50 will have national implications. If the Democratic House of Representatives threat While that is on the agenda for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term, Newsom is widely seen as a 2028 presidential candidate who is likely to raise his profile within the party by spearheading Trump’s plan to course correct his conservative strategy.
“Losing this election in California means Democrats have virtually no chance of taking back the House,” Newsom warned in a recent fundraising pitch to supporters.
where is the money?
Early in the campaign, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC tied to House Speaker Mike Johnson, began donating $5 million to opponents. But noticeably, the expected late rise in national Republican funding has yet to materialize.
Investing in heavily Democratic California is often seen as a risky gamble for Republican donors, who are battling across the country to maintain slim majorities in the House and Senate next year. Trump has largely distanced himself from campaigning in the state, where he lost in landslides in the previous three presidential elections, but he won more votes in the state than any previous Republican presidential candidate, thanks in part to a loyal conservative base.
California has some of the most expensive media markets in the nation. When it comes to money, it’s not just about fighting off Newsom’s new House map for Republicans. Whether Prop. 50 passes or not, tens of millions of more dollars will be needed to protect the state’s dwindling number of Republican House incumbents.
With the 2026 midterm elections approaching and control of the House in jeopardy, Republican donors across the country are “looking at their money and thinking about where it’s most needed,” said Tim Lineberger, communications director for Trump’s 2016 Michigan campaign who also worked in the previous president’s administration. With important House races brewing across the country, that money may flow elsewhere “rather than the fight that may be inevitable here.”
But there are millions of Trump supporters in California, and “there are still important battles to be fought in this state,” Lineberger added.
John Fleischman, a longtime Republican strategist and former executive director of the California Republican Party, asked, “Does the path to the White House, the Senate and the House really run through California?”
“If there’s not a lot of state money coming in, that question might have a disappointing answer,” Fleischman said.
Does California’s strategy to counter Trump matter?
Even if a new map is approved next month, it remains to be seen how much political maneuvering in California will affect control of the House.
The proposed California House districts, crafted behind closed doors by Democrats, are designed to: 5 additional Democratic U.S. House seats offset President Trump’s actions in Texas Win five Republican districts by the 2026 midterm elections. This could increase the Democratic vote share from the current 43 to 48 of California’s 52 seats in the state legislature.
But the Republican Party missouri, north carolina and Indiana Republicans are also making moves that could add House seats, and districts are being drawn on a state-by-state basis. Republicans hold a 219-213 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, with three seats vacant.
Will it stop Trump or will it be a Democratic power grab?
While the framework for the campaign has been set, with Newsom portraying it as a fight against Trump to save democracy, Republicans and their allies have denounced the proposal as a blatant power grab aimed at scrapping the House map drawn by an independent commission and giving the state’s dominant Democratic Party even more power.
The few Republicans whose districts could be dramatically redistricted have largely avoided the campaign spotlight.
If you were the single largest donor to this campaign, you could probably walk through downtown Los Angeles in broad daylight without being recognized. Charles Munger Jr. — son of late billionaire Charlie MungerWarren Buffett, who helped build Berkshire Hathaway into an investment powerhouse, has poured more than $30 million into efforts to thwart Newsom’s plan.
Munger, a longtime Republican donor who was instrumental in establishing independent redistricting in the state, said voters need to put aside the Trump story and focus on how Newsom’s maps subvert representation by dividing districts for political gain.
Voters should ask, “Is this good for you?” Munger recently told reporters. “Do you trust the people who drew maps like this?”
The campaign also includes prominent figures such as former Republican Gov. Arnold. schwarzenegger appeared in an ad opposing the change, but former Democratic President Barack Obama supported Mr. Newsom’s proposal. But with no candidates on the ballot, the race lacks any compelling drama.
What it takes to win
To win past the 50% mark, Newsom and his allies hope to keep the focus on President Trump, with the aim of significantly increasing turnout among Democrats and other left-leaning voters. Republicans make up only one in four voters in the state, so opponents will need to win over some Democrats while gaining an edge among independent voters and capturing heroic Republican turnout.
At a rally against the proposal in a Los Angeles suburb last week, retired Republican Ann White lamented that the plan would in some cases create oddly shaped districts that are a combination of rural and rural areas, rather than leaning toward Republicans and liberal coastal cities.
“Those guys have nothing in common with each other,” White said. The current districts were set by an independent commission in public hearings, but Newsom “wants to undo all of that.”
