Washington (AP) – The Constitution reveals it: “people” can choose them Who will represent their interests? In the US House of Representatives.
But how closely do these choices reflect the overall political tendencies of people? Questions are central Power play Republicans are trying to do in Texas Recreate the boundaries of the state legislature We will help them maintain control of the House in next year’s midterm elections.
In many cases, state legislative delegations do not align very closely with what appears to be the will of the voters, but that is not always the case. Partisan Gerrymander.
All Conditions Decide how to draw your own parliamentary boundaries. Some, like California, rely on independent district committees, but most people leave it to the state legislature and the governor to put their plans into place. It is a state where one party controls all the levers of the government, and often unfolds when the majority attempt to maximize their power, re-zoning dramas like Texas.
Regardless of the process, the resulting map often favors a single party with a much more biased congressional delegation than the state’s partisan demographics suggest.
The results of the state’s presidential vote are not an accurate tool for measuring what a congressional delegation should look like, but it can provide a compelling comparison point. Politicians frequently quote it when they condemn partisan rezoning practices that they think are unfair.
President Donald Trump, Who’s pushing Texas? and Other GOP control states To redraw their maps, Republicans this week said they “qualify for five more seats” in Texas, based on the scale of his victory in November. Trump won 56% of Texas’ votes, but Republicans already own 65% of the state’s Congressional delegation. This increases to 79% if a new map of GOP is adopted and past voting patterns are retained in the next election.
In the incident with a Texas Democrat in Boston, Missouri Sen. Ashley Orne said her state presidential vote warned of possible Republican-led efforts.
“58% of Missouri voted for Trump, and they want to send 87% of the representatives to Congress,” Democrat Orne said.
It is actually quite common for a state legislative delegation to not match the outcome of a statewide presidential vote.
In 41 of 44 states with multiple parliamentary districts, the party of the award-winning presidential candidates has a greater share of state seating than the presidential vote, according to the Associated Press analysis. For the most part, it was a much larger share, at least a 10% point gap.
Comparisons of Congressional delegations and presidential votes are the results of state sampling, including those considering redrawing the Congressional boundaries after Texas calls a special session.
California and Illinois
In his remarks to CNBC, Trump pointed to California and Illinois as justification for redrawing the map of Texas courtesy of Republicans.
“They realized they were going to Illinois for safety, but it was all gerrymanders,” he said in relation to the Texas Democrats who moved to the Chicago area, at least temporarily, to block Republican constituency efforts.
“California Gerrymanders should have more seats in California’s Congress,” he said.
He’s right about Illinois. The Democrats are gerrymandering, so they hold 14 of their 17 house seats. That’s not the case in California.
The Democrats out there own about 83% of the state’s 52 House seats, making up the majority. Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris received about 59% of the November vote. But it’s not because of democratic gerrymandering. The voting initiative has taken this process away from state legislators and given it to an independent civic committee.
The biased map of California is partly due to its method A cluster of like-minded people: California Democrats tend to live in and near major cities that gain more Congressional districts for their population.
Florida
Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis won a legal victory in July. Supported by the state Supreme Court His Congress rezoning plan Redrawing a district with a large black population. As a result of that plan, Republicans held about 71% of the state’s 28 US home seats. Trump carried the state in November with 56% of the vote.
Desantis later showed The map could have more “flaws” that need to be addressed before the next census.
Republicans retained an 18-7 advantage over Democrats in the Florida House delegation after the 2000 census. Democrats slowly narrowed the gap, reaching 13 seats for Republicans after the 2018 election. However, Republicans reestablished their advantages after rezoning, following the 2020 census, when they reached the 20-8 division they hold today.
new york
Democrats have long been in the New York ballot box for president and congressional elections. Harris received almost 56% of the vote in 2024, while Democrats own 73% of the state’s 26 House seats.
With democratic benefits in both state legislature rooms, New York may have been a ripe target for Democrats looking to offset their interests in Texas and elsewhere. However, they will need to amend the state constitution to implement new rezonings before the next census. That constraint means that early Democrats can enact a new map for 2028.
North Carolina
North Carolina is one of the most closely divided states; Unique constituency drama.
The state Republicans conducted The boundary of the new home In 2023, the 7-7 congressional delegation was transformed into one that Republicans had 10-4 advantage in the 2024 election. Currently, several districts are the subject Federal lawsuitsDemocrats advocate for the power of black voters illegally diluted by Republicans.
North Carolina is one of the most competitive states of the past few presidential elections. Trump carried the state in November with about 51% of the vote, but elected Democrats to governor and attorney general and other statewide offices.
In the 2008 presidential election, Democrat Barack Obama narrowly rimmed Republican John McCain with a 49.7% vote. The Congressional delegation at the time reflected that, which was almost evenly divided, with Democrats holding seven seats and Republicans after the mid-2010 period.
But following the Republican-controlled constituency rounds after the 2010 census, Republicans held 10-3 or 9-4 benefits in Congressional delegations for the remainder of that decade.
After the 2020 census, the majority of North Carolina Democrats supreme courts have abandoned the Republican plans and allowed elections under a map adopted by judges who created a 7-7 split. US Supreme Court I’ve allowed to use boundaries In the 2022 election.
rear Reversing to the Republican majority In 2023, the state Supreme Court ruled that partisan gerrymandering was not prohibited by the state constitution, allowing GOP lawmakers to redraw the map of the legislature used today, leading to a 10-4 majority of the party.
Minnesota
Minnesota is the state where the collapse of Congress most closely matches the 2024 presidential outcome. Harris received 51% of that vote, compared to 47% of Trump. Democrats and Republicans split the state’s eight House seats on a court-imposed map.
Nevada
Nevada, whose democratic congressional borders, is the only state where the party of victorious presidential candidates has fallen by counterparts of state legislative delegations. Trump received 51% of the Nevada vote, but Democrats own three of the state’s four House districts.
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Boston Associated Press Writer Leah Willingham contributed to this report.
