San Francisco, USA: Billionaire giant Elon Musk Tesla says its future will focus on robotaxixis, robots and self-driving cars. Musk’s own fate, including the promise of a $1 trillion salary package, will depend on the automakers who will hit these milestones over the next decade.
One key feature to achieve some of these goals revolves around Tesla’s ability to provide fully automated driving services. The company will have to sell up to 10 million subscriptions for self-driving cars as one of the conditions for the proposed trillion-dollar wage package.
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However, the reliability of the service has been a problem for now. This included multiple accidents, including the death of a person, and the autonomous driving functions are held at negligence, experts said.
It’s not the spotlight Tesla wants, but recently settled down with the family of a 15-year-old boy in San Francisco. Jovani Maldonado’s family had claimed that the self-driving cars were the cause of the accident.
The settlement comes weeks after Florida ju-degree ordered the family of a pedestrian who died in a crash that included a Tesla self-driving vehicle to pay $243 million in damages. The ju judge reached a verdict that the car was negligent and set precedents for cases such as the Maldonados case. The company appealed the Florida verdict.
Tesla has solved cases in the past, but the Maldonado settlement comes when the company’s fourth master plan, announced on September 1, bets future growth in regards to Robotaxis and robot sales.
Musk said the Lobotaxis, currently piloted in San Francisco, California and Austin, Texas, will be available to many cities across the country and by the end of the year, and by half of all Americans. Tesla Robotaxis has a safety driver in San Francisco, but Musk said it will go away within a few months if regulatory approval is made.
The California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) has filed an incident in which Tesla mistakenly says it is “fully autonomous” only in the second second on the 5-point scale of autonomous driving. The DMV is calling for a one-month ban on Teslas, which is promoted in the state, the country’s largest market. The court’s verdict is scheduled for next month.
“Masks need to show a new business model,” said Carl Blauer, an analyst at ISEeCars.com. The company’s profits and sales of electric vehicles have slipped over the past few months due to increased competition, protesting Musk’s politics and his role with the Trump administration. However, sales could drop even further as the federal tax credits for electric vehicles end on September 30th.
The company is betting on Robotaxis and robots, but “these lawsuits showed that there are questions about autonomous driving,” Brauer said. “The reality of autonomous driving is different from prediction.”
Tesla did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.
The final release
On April 25, 2019, George McGee was driving a Tesla car in Boca Raton, Florida. According to court documents reviewed by Al Jazeera, McGee speeded forward and leaned down to pick it up when the car on top of the Autopilot missed a traffic light.
The car went off the paved road and slammed onto a Chevrolet Tahoe parked in the car park with force spun around a seven-seater SUV, which hit Nabeil Benavides and Dillon Angulo of High Standards. Benavides was thrown into a wooded area 75 feet (23 meters) away and died. Anglo was injured.
Benavides and Angulo’s family sued McGee for admitting negligence, but said they thought the auxiliary driving system would manage the situation rather than release it. The family also filed a lawsuit against Tesla, leading to an order that ordered a historic $243 million verdict.
Tesla says on its website that self-driving cars are more likely to get into an accident after driving nearly 7 million miles, compared to less than one million in regular cars. The car says it is the least likely to cause damage to a vehicle tested by the US government.
It is difficult to say whether Tesla cars have more accidents than other such self-driving cars, but some experts say there is an incident with the auxiliary driving system that was released seconds before the crash, and there is little opportunity for drivers to take control of the car.
Brett Schlebner, the lawyer who represented Benavidez and Maldonado’s family in such cases, said almost all of his cases were accompanied by a situation of release in the last seconds that caused the accident, not giving the driver enough time to take charge of the car.
Tesla relies solely on cameras, not using cameras with radar and lidar (light detection and range). If there are three sensors working together to detect other cars and people around them, it could enhance safety-related issues, experts said.
“I’m not normative about what they should use, but can radar, rider and camera do that with just one sensor, rather than working together?” says Mary Cummings, professor and director of the Autonomy and Robotics Center at George Mason University.
Cummings testifies as an expert witness in the Florida case, pointing out some of Tesla’s past shortcomings.
“We’re excited to introduce a wide range of energy management and application labs at the University of California, Berkeley,” said Scott Moura, director of Energy Management and Applications Labs. Tesla costs less than other self-driving cars, such as the Waymo, which uses all three sensors.
Michael Bernard, the chief strategist at TFIE, a climate and energy consulting outfit, didn’t think Tesla needed a Ridar, but when he abolished the radar in 2021, he thought it was like robbing the “sensory.” “In some circumstances, you can drive, but it’s difficult to drive in fog, snow or downtown.”
According to MIT researcher Shua Sanchez, following the Florida ruling, “the door was opened to allow Tesla to take responsibility for the Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS).” The California settlement is adding to that, he said. Sanchez was involved in the Tesla Takedown movement. This saw a protest earlier this year at several Tesla showrooms where Musk was involved in efforts to cut down US government jobs and sectors.
Before setting up the undisclosed amount, Schribner, who had sought damages from the company in the Maldonado case, said there was a similar lawsuit.
A hearing could begin next March for Sachapeletier, a recent university graduate who was about to join the military. He was riding a motorbike on the state highway when Tesla struck him and was seriously injured. In that case, Tesla was in Autopilot.
These cases “influence the evaluation of Tesla’s autonomous driving for all,” says Schlebner. He may once again be seeking nearly $1 billion in damages. This could hurt a company, if awarded, that lost 16% to $1.2 billion in profits in the second quarter of 2025.
Musk says Tesla could have “a few quarters” with the end of tax and regulatory credits. However, the company says it is a “significant point in Tesla’s history,” where it focuses on AI, robots and robot taxis.
According to analysts, the plan lacks details, including how Tesla will fight safety-related concerns about Robotaxis.
While speaking on AS on the September 9 podcast, Musk said the company is developing a new artificial intelligence chip that is 40 times better than the current one. The company is also coming up with software upgrades that make self-driving cars at least 2-3 times safer than human-driven cars and up to 10 times safer than human-driven cars.
Musk also said he was speaking from Tesla’s Palo Alto campus, not from Washington, D.C.
“He wants to calm down.”
California DMV’s verdict on the lawsuit with Tesla could come in October unless a settlement is reached, as expected by energy experts in some states.
“California has the most sophisticated standards for self-driving,” said Mula in Berkeley. “We are the world’s test labs and people see what California is doing.”
Steve Larson, former executive director of the California State Energy Commission, said Musk is looking for certification and capabilities in the state given questions surrounding autonomous driving capabilities.
“If California remembers Tesla, others can do that too. He’s going to want to settle,” Larson told Al Jazeera.
But it will still be a while before Robotaxis and self-driving cars really take off, analysts said. Brauer of Iseecars.com said that a move to fully autonomous on a large scale could take longer than Musk and others in the industry.
In a research report from brokerage Baird last week, senior analyst Karl Bello wrote:
Bello also writes that he believes Masterplan and Musk’s own pay will be the centre of the shareholders’ meeting, which will be held on November 6th.
“And even if he meets all his plans, it’s not like the competition is in the same place,” Brauer told Al Jazeera. “In fact, Waymo and some others are already ahead.”
