WASHINGTON (AP) – The Labor Department is scheduled to release September employment and unemployment statistics next Thursday, a month and a half late, marking the beginning of an end to a 43-day statistical drought. federal government shutdown.
statistical blackout That means since late summer, the Federal Reserve, businesses, policymakers and investors have been largely silent on inflation, job creation, GDP growth and other indicators of the health of the U.S. economy.
More than 30 reports from the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau were delayed due to political conflicts, Thomas Simmons and Michael Bakolas of financial firm Jefferies wrote in a commentary Friday.
For the seventh straight week, the Labor Department did not release weekly reports on the number of Americans enrolled in unemployment benefits. The jobless claims report is seen as potentially an early indicator of where the labor market is heading.
The Ministry of Labor announced that consumer price index The September report, the most common measure of inflation, was released on October 24, nine days late. The government made an exception to the report due to its urgency. This is because the report is used to calculate the annual inflation rate. Adjusting the cost of living Tens of millions of Americans receive Social Security and other federal benefits.
The suspension of federal economic data comes at a troubling time. President Donald Trump’s policies, including large, constantly changing import taxes and large-scale deportations of people working illegally in the United States, have created uncertainty about the economic outlook.
And the economy is sending conflicting signals. Economic growth looked solid at mid-year, but unemployment was low. But job growth has stalled, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, partly due to President Trump’s tariffs.
Simmons at Jefferies expects the September jobs report to show employers added 65,000 jobs in the month. That’s not a shocking number, but it’s up from just 22,000 in August. According to his estimates, the unemployment rate remains at a low level of 4.3%.
Data-hungry investors and policymakers
The data blackout has rattled Wall Street and deepened disagreements among Fed officials over whether to cut interest rates for the third time in a row at its next meeting in December.
This week, some Fed policymakers suggested that a lack of data was one reason they supported delaying further rate cuts.
As a result, new reports on employment and inflation in the coming weeks and months will be of great importance to the Fed, as the new numbers could help resolve disagreements among its supporters. Further interest rate cuts And those who oppose it.
However, even if the government reopens, it could take several more weeks for the data to fully recover. Top White House economist Kevin Hassett said earlier this week that only a portion of the October jobs report, originally scheduled for release on Nov. 7, will ultimately be released.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will have enough data from businesses to calculate how many jobs added or lost last month. Many are submitted electronically. However, a separate household survey used to calculate the unemployment rate was not conducted during the shutdown.
As a result, for the first time in 77 years, the BLS may not calculate the unemployment rate for October.
Other White House officials previously said the October inflation report would also not be released because data could not be collected due to the government shutdown. That will pose a challenge for the Fed, which is trying to determine whether inflation will return to 2%.
The data interruption comes just months after Trump fired BLS Director Erica McEnterfer for releasing an Aug. 1 jobs report he didn’t like. Employment growth was modest in July, and increases in May and June were significantly smaller than previously expected.
Still, economists said future reports should be free of bias. The agency currently has no political appointee since President Trump withdrew his nomination to head the BLS on September 30.
“The data is being created by pretty much the same people as in the past,” said Aaron Sojourner, senior economist at the W.E. Upjohn Institute.
