From the Wall Street trade bed to the US Federal Reserve, from economists to coffee drinking economists in their home offices, this brings a quiet tranquility at 8:30am (12:30 GMT) in the United States on the first Friday morning of the month.
However, no information on employment was released for September on Friday as the government was shut down.
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Data disruptions occurred at a particularly uncertain time, when Federal Reserve policymakers and Wall Street investors needed more data on the economy, rather than fewer. Employment has almost stopped and threatens to cut the wider economy. At the same time, consumers, especially high-income people, are still spending, with some companies increasing their investment in data centers that are developing artificial intelligence models. It remains to be seen whether that will be enough to revive employment.
This is the first time that an employment report has been delayed since the government shut down in 2013. During the partial government closures in 2018-2019, the Labour Bureau was one of several institutions that remained open as Congress agreed to fund them. The September work figures will eventually be released once the shutdown is over.
US President Donald Trump’s administration blamed Senate Democrats on shutting down, but Democrats collected similar accusations against the White House.
“As the Democratic government shutdown has stopped the release of key economic data, businesses, families, policymakers, markets, and even the Federal Reserve are blinded at a critical point in America’s economic revival,” said White House spokesman Kush Desai.
But Trump himself often destroys government employment data when he paints sly pictures of the economy. In August, he fired the then head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after the agency said employment in May and June was sharply lower than previously reported.
Alternative Data Resources
For now, economists are turning to alternatives to the job market offered by nonprofits and private companies. These measures indicate a job market with few employment, but there are also no many layoffs. Most people who work seem safe, but those who are looking for work have a tough time.
For example, Payroll Processor ADP said Wednesday that its estimates showed the economy lost an astounding 32,000 private sector jobs last month. The ADP has all cut jobs by companies in the construction, manufacturing and financial services industries. Restaurants and hotels, as well as specialized services such as accounting and engineering, are also circulating workers.
According to the ADP, companies in healthcare, private education and information technology were the only areas where workers were added.
Nella Richardson, ADP chief economist, said: “This coincides with low-employment (no-employer) and low-fire economy.”
The closure also means that the government has not made public the weekly number of numbers on how many Americans have applied for unemployment benefits, which are representatives of layoffs that are published every Thursday.
However, Goldman Sachs has used data provided by most states to create their own estimates of unemployment claims. In a late report on Thursday, they calculated that weekly claims reached a maximum of 224,000 from 218,000 the previous week. These are historically low numbers, suggesting that businesses still hold most of their workers.
On Friday, the Supply Management Institute, a trade association for purchasing managers, released a monthly report on economic activity in the services sector, from banking to restaurants, retail stores, warehouses and warehouses, from covering about 90% of the economy. That index fell from 52 to 50, with 50 being the division line between shrinking and expanding. In other words, the services sector activity was not changed last month.
However, the service company has cut employment for the fourth consecutive month, an ISM survey suggests that the benefits of jobs last month are weak.
And the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its monthly unemployment forecast on Thursday. This is a new alternative announced last month. The Chicago Federal Government estimates that unemployment rate in September remains at 4.3%.
