OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — As the state considers Redraw congressional district boundaries Some politicians have warned that in favor of a particular political party: try gerrymandering When partisan goals end up helping opponents in neighboring districts, it can lead to “dummy mandering.”
first pushed by President Donald Trumpstate lawmakers across the country are debating and sometimes agreeing to border changes in hopes of supporting party members and ultimately determining control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2026. Some people find it’s not as easy as they think.
“Trying to win more seats is risky because to win more seats you have to draw districts more competitively,” said Thomas L. Brunell, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Dallas who helped coin the term dummy mander.
Republicans may attempt redistricting in Nebraska
U.S. House of Representatives districts are typically redrawn once every 10 years immediately after the census, but some states allow them to be redrawn more frequently. The Supreme Court also said the federal government will not regulate political gerrymandering, where districts are intentionally drawn to favor one political party.
Nebraska is one of many states targeted for redrawing House districts in mid-decade, and the nation’s top Republican redistricting leader last week named Nebraska a top candidate for the change. Republican Gov. Jim Pillen said he supports the idea.
The focus is on the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District, the “blue dot” with the highest concentration of Democratic voters in Republican-majority Nebraska.
Republicans hold all three U.S. House seats, including Nebraska’s 2nd District, but the Omaha seat is seen as vulnerable. Incumbent Congressman Don Bacon has won the past two elections. I will not seek re-election Expectations for the Democratic Party are high in 2026.
Gerrymandering may seem easy in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats 2-to-1, but state Sen. John Kavanaugh said that’s not the case.
Kavanaugh, a Democrat who is running Nebraska’s last redistricting effort after the 2020 census and is currently running for the 2nd District seat, said Nebraska’s congressional districts are already tilted in favor of Republicans after decades of Republican-led redistricting efforts.
“They have done everything they can to make District 2 less competitive,” Kavanaugh said.
Redistricting and the 2026 midterm elections
This summer, President Trump invigorated the off-season redistricting battle by urging Republican-led Texas to redistrict its districts to give Republicans more seats in next year’s election. Republicans typically lose seats in midterm elections, and the president is trying to buck that trend. Democrats need to win just three seats to take control of the House.
In August, Texas lawmakers rewritten the state Republicans have a chance to pick up five more seats in the House district. Democratic-led California Democrats responded with a redistricting plan aimed at winning more seats, but still Requires voter approval. Leaders in other Democratic-leaning states, including Maryland, New York and Illinois, have said they are considering their own mid-decade redistricting plans.
Last month, Republican-led Missouri Adopt revised district It was intended to help Republicans win new seats. North Carolina Republican legislative leaders also announced plans Next week, voters are scheduled to vote on redrawing the state’s congressional district maps.
Redistricting continues to be considered in several other states. Including Indiana In Kansas, Republican lawmakers are collecting petition signatures from their colleagues to call a special session to redistrict Congress.
Efforts may backfire
Some Republicans remain hesitant about redistricting in mid-decade, fearing it will backfire. To make Democratic-leaning districts more favorable to Republicans, mapmakers would need to move some Democratic areas into districts currently held by Republicans, making them more vulnerable.
In South Carolina, Republican leaders are concerned that redistricting seven House districts could be dangerous in a state where Republican support in the race hovers around 55%. Republicans hold all 7 seats But I lost one 2018 term.
Kansas was already looking to convert four of the state’s districts into an all-Republican caucus when it redrawn the state’s borders in 2022 to weaken Democratic strongholds in the Kansas City area. However, the Democratic Party Current Congresswoman Sharice David They also won easily in 2022 and 2024.
Polls show President Trump’s push to redraw the maps comes as his administration’s policies face skepticism among many voters. Associated Press-NORC Public Affairs Research Center.
Moon Duchin, a computer and data science professor and redistricting expert at the University of Chicago, said it’s easier to reliably draw partisan congressional maps in large states like Texas. That’s because the state has 38 electoral districts, so there are plenty of options for adjustments.
It’s even tougher in states like Nebraska and Kansas, she said.
“With the number of lines reduced, we won’t be able to get them far unless we create opportunities elsewhere,” Duchin said. “So, yes, you have to do it very carefully because it can backfire.”
In Texas, too, Republicans recognized the effects of dummy mandering after aggressively rethinking the political path that helped inflate the GOP’s House majority in the 2010s. That lasted until 2018. Backlash against Trump In his first term, he flipped two seats that Republicans thought were safe to Democrats.
“That’s the thing about gerrymandering: People are still going to vote and they have to make assumptions about their future voting behavior,” Duchin said.
Nebraska has other challenges.
After initial reluctance, Republicans in states including Texas and Missouri have come to support redistricting.
That could happen in Nebraska, too, although some key Republicans remain opposed.
Republican state Sen. Merv Riepe said she would not support such a bill, saying there are too few Republican votes to get it past the filibuster.
This coincides with Republicans’ failure last year to pass a bill that would have made Nebraska the 49th state to award votes to the Electoral College. winner take all Basics.
Currently, only Nebraska and Maine allow presidential electoral votes to be divided by congressional district. Votes in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District have gone Democratic three times in the past 20 years. In 2008, Barack Obama Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024.
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Associated Press Writer David A. Reeve in Jefferson City, Missouri. John Hannah of Topeka, Kansas; Jeffrey Collins of Columbia, South Carolina; and Gary D. Robertson in Raleigh, North Carolina, contributed.
