Brussels (AP) – Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Ukraine’s invasion In 2022, NATO focused on thwarting attacks on its own territory and avoiding an all-out war with nuclear-armed Russia. Now it’s time for NATO to defend itself, and European allies may have to do it alone, experts and leaders say.
Russia has as it attacked Ukraine Constant harassment Supporter of Kiev in Europe. Fighter planes and ships are violating NATO airspace and water. Transport and communications networks are being hampered. Putin’s opponents were poisoned in Europe. Disinformation campaigns aim to undermine support and weaken unity.
However, multiple Russian flights Polish drone This week marks a clear escalation, experts say. NATO responded with overwhelming power. The cheap drones were shot down with high-tech military kits, and the top-line F-35 jets were deployed. A costly exercise.
Russian troops said they were not targeting Poland. Belarus suggested that the drone had been off course, probably due to jamming.
France, the Netherlands and the UK are sending more equipment, particularly near Russia’s Belarus, to help Poland protect its borders Military exercises have begun on friday. The eastern flank of NATO in Europe will be strengthened with more air defenses stationed there.
For now, Europe is alone
“Nothing more is unclear what the US will do to strengthen NATO’s air defense,” said Oana Lungescu, a spokesman for NATO’s longest serving, in social media.
NATO relies on US leadership, but the Trump administration now claims Europe must take care of it Unique securityand that of Ukraine.
European leaders condemned the drone incident and promised action. President Donald Trump said it could have been “a mistake.”
Trump’s ambiguity about European defenses undermined trust in NATO despite alliance attempts We will project unity at the summit July.
“We hope that the drone attack on Poland is a mistake, but it wasn’t. And we know that,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tass wrote on X on Friday.
After a meeting of the Polish National Security Council on Thursday, the task said: “We all like to have our biggest allies openly and openly talk about this incident, but we have to get used to the new situation so that we don’t get too loud.”
Russia will use it
It’s as good a time for Putin to test NATO’s resolve. Disappointing Ukraine and European allies, Trump dropped his demand for an immediate ceasefire Summit with Russian leaders Last month, Alaska prefers a wider deal to end the war.
Long-term US sanctions on Russia remained a threat, with Putin increasing the time he tried to seize Ukrainian territory. Winter is approaching and fighting could cease within a few months anyway.
“President Putin is really coming out to put markers on NATO right now,” Jamie Shea, an international security expert and former NATO official at the London Chatham House think tank, told The Associated Press.
Some of it may be detained by Ukraine by tempting the allies to send air defenses to Poland, but Putin “want to force their allies to choose to defend NATO and protect Ukraine,” Siah said.
If they cannot do so, he said, “From Putin’s point of view, this will be a very happy development, because he will break down the energy infrastructure of Ukraine and cause misery for the Ukrainian people.”
How is it best to respond?
It is not easy for European allies to protect everyone at once without integrating their air defense systems with Ukraine. One possibility might be to accept Kiev’s demands to fire down Russian missiles in western Ukraine if Poland takes its trajectory towards Polish territory. The government of the task never rule out doing so.
In any case, time is on the Russian side. While Trump is holding it I agreed to the sale Many must be manufactured first to Europeans for American weapons to support themselves and Ukrainian armaments. Putin understands that these systems take months, if not years.
The drone incident came just before a joint military exercise with Russia’s Belarus (called “Zapad 2025” or “West 2025”). The following year, NATO accused Russia of using pre-position equipment in 2021 using “Zapad” exercises to invade Ukraine.
The exercise is being carried out even when Russia is smaller than usual, “to demonstrate that (Putin) can invade Ukraine and simultaneously put pressure on NATO,” Siah said.
Few experts believe NATO will resort to activation Article 5 Of the establishment treaties on the case, three musketeers-like pledges that attacks on one ally will be treated as attacks on all of them — and the military alliance does not suggest that it will.
For now, strengthening defenses on the east flank of NATO is the order of the day.
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Author Danica Kirka of the Associated Press in London, Jamie Kierten of Geneva and Claudia Siobani of Warsaw in Poland contributed to the report.
