WASHINGTON (AP) — Tuesday marks the nation’s first major election day since President Donald Trump. donald trump Returning to the White House, his leadership and policies dominated the debates in nearly every election, even though no Republicans participated in the race.
The biggest races are in Virginia and New Jersey, the only states electing governors this year. Trump lost both last fall, but voters in both have a history of electing Republicans to statewide office. Republican candidates are working closely with the president, betting that last year’s big victory will pave the way for victory this time, even if the party that occupies the White House struggles in off-season elections.
On the other hand, a strong Democratic Party could offer a path for the party to regain national relevance, even if its leading candidates take radically different approaches, from sticking to moderate lines to fully embracing government spending to improve the lives of voters.
In New York City, a self-described democratic socialist who has already been criticized by President Trump could become a national star if elected mayor. And California voters will decide whether to redraw the state’s House maps as Democrats seek to counter President Trump’s push to reshape the balance of power in Congress.
Here’s what to look out for:
Referendum on President Trump
The president did not set foot in either Virginia or New Jersey to campaign with Republican gubernatorial candidates Winsome Earl Sears and Jack Ciattarelli, but both elections are likely to be seen as referendums on Trump’s previous office.
Last year, his tariffs rocked the global economy, and his “big and beautiful” budget proposal threatened rural hospitals and health insurance coverage for millions, enacted massive cuts to the federal workforce and sent the National Guard to multiple American cities.
The president endorsed Ciatarelli in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, but held only two teletown halls for himself, including one on Monday night. Trump also gave a teletown hall speech on the eve of the election for Republican candidates in Virginia, but he did not mention Earl Sears and spoke primarily in support of the Republican attorney general nominee. At the beginning of the campaign, Trump did not mention Earl Sears by name but gave only a half-hearted endorsement, saying he supported the Republican gubernatorial candidate. Still, like Ciatarelli in New Jersey, Earl Sears was a passionate defender of Trump and his policies.
Despite Trump’s distancing, a good night for Republicans will almost certainly be seen as a political victory for Trump and his “Make America Great Again” agenda. A bad night for Republicans will give Democrats a strong — if perhaps fleeting — start heading into the midterm elections, which still have a year to go.
A new strategy for the Democratic Party?
Tuesday offers candidates a test of two very different Democratic philosophies: stick to a moderate path or fully embrace far-left progressivism. But it also presents scenarios in which both or neither could succeed, making it more difficult to draw conclusions going forward.
The party’s gubernatorial candidates, Rep. Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, have focused primarily on the economy, public safety and health care, distancing themselves from some of the Democratic Party’s far-left policies.
After Republicans won the White House and both chambers of Congress last year, a growing number of Democratic leaders believe a moderate approach holds the key to the party’s resurgence. Tuesday could be a key indicator of whether their claims are correct.
Both Sherrill and Spanberger have downplayed their support for progressive priorities, such as LGBTQ rights and resisting President Trump’s attacks on American institutions. spanburger Trump’s name is rarely even mentioned. In the middle of the campaign.
Both have resumes that may appeal to the middle class.
Mr. Sherrill spent 10 years as an active-duty helicopter pilot in the Navy before joining Congress, while Mr. Spanberger is a former CIA case officer who spent years working undercover overseas. They have touted their public safety background as a direct response to Republican attacks that Democrats are soft on crime.
Democrats have focused above all on the rising costs of food, energy and health care, which President Trump has struggled to control.
Emerging stars for New York City Democrats (and Republicans)
That approach is sharply different from the New York mayoral race, where progressives are buoyed by Zoran Mamdani, a 34-year-old Muslim state lawmaker who identifies as a democratic socialist and supports radical changes to address economic inequality.
His bold policies and inspirational approach have attracted thousands of New York volunteers and led him to campaign on his behalf, including Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. It has also frightened the voices of some business leaders and the Jewish community, who support the Democratic Party but oppose some of Mamdani’s past statements about personal wealth accumulation and Israel.
Mamdani is trapped. caustic race against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent after losing to Mamdani in the Democratic primary. Republican Curtis Sliwa is aiming for a big upset.
And while many progressives are excited, some Republicans in Washington are also quietly rooting for Mamdani’s victory. Republican campaign committees have already launched attack ads linking more than a dozen vulnerable House Democrats in New York and New Jersey to Mamdani and his far-left politics.
President Trump endorsed Cuomo on Monday night, writing online: “Whether you like Andrew Cuomo personally or not, you really don’t have a choice. You have to vote for him and hope he does a great job. He can do it, but Mamdani can’t!”
It comes after Trump mocked Mamdani almost daily. Republican operatives are also giddy with the opportunity to use him to attack even more Democrats as next year’s midterm elections approach, just as they did against progressive Democrats such as Ocasio-Cortez and House “split” members such as Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar.
shutdown effect
Election Day comes in the midst of a federal government shutdown that has already lasted more than a month. Both parties in Congress are accusing each other, and there is no end in sight.
Does it matter?
There are more than 134,000 federal employees in Virginia, many of whom have been furloughed or forced to work without pay. According to the nonprofit Partnership for Public Service, New Jersey is home to nearly 21,000 federal employees, out of more than 2 million federal employees nationwide.
Both numbers are more than enough to sway a close election.
At the same time, millions of people may be suffering significant losses. food aid Actions from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) would provide voters with another pressing reason to express dissatisfaction.
polling show Republicans, who control Congress and the White House, have received slightly more criticism than Democrats, but many complaints have been directed at both sides.
President Trump has taken the unusual step of asking the Senate to eliminate the filibuster rule that requires at least 60 votes on major legislation to force the government to reopen — even though his own party leadership believes it is a nonstarter.
Trump’s challenge to realignment
Mr. Trump lost Virginia and New Jersey last fall, but both states experienced significant shifts to the right. In New Jersey, Trump’s 16-point lead in 2020 narrowed to less than 6 points in 2024.
These changes have been accelerated by Trump’s growing popularity among traditional Democratic voters, including union members, black men, Hispanic voters, and young people. Democrats are particularly vulnerable in New Jersey, which has the highest percentage of union households in the nation.
If these pro-Trump trends continue this week, Democrats could be in trouble.
But of course Trump is not on the ballot. And the Trump coalition, especially low-propensity voters, typically doesn’t show up in such numbers in years without a president.
Given that President Trump did not actively campaign in either state, Democrats are cautiously optimistic, driven by both the president’s weak position and allies’ concerns about the viability of the Republican candidate, particularly in Virginia.
At the same time, former President Barack Obama, the biggest star in Democratic politics, rallied voters in New Jersey and Virginia over the weekend.
Pennsylvania, California and the future of elections
Pennsylvania voters will decide whether three Democratic-backed state Supreme Court justices will hear the case. serve another term.
The outcome could shape the seven-member high court in the nation’s most populous battleground state and could impact important litigation over redistricting and voting in the midterm elections and the 2028 presidential election.
Current members are not listed by party affiliation. The ballot simply asks voters to vote yes or no. But spending on the race is likely to exceed $15 million, showing how important the race is to Democrats and Republicans in Pennsylvania and elsewhere.
In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom, a frequently mentioned 2028 presidential candidate, is leading an effort to redraw the state’s congressional maps to give Democrats five more seats in upcoming elections.
The push is the centerpiece of Democrats’ efforts to counter new Republican maps in Texas and other states designed to improve Republicans’ chances in the battle for control of Congress next year. However, for the new map to take effect in 2026, voters must first approve a ballot question known as “yes” or “no.” Suggestion 50.
