Whether or not Lionsgate’s John Wick spinoff Ballerina clears or falls under $30M this weekend in U.S./Canada, consider the win in favor of exhibition which will have that much more money in the marketplace.
The Ana de Armas action movie is also bowing in 82 countries in what’s expected to be another $30M for a global take, give or take, around $60M; that offshore cash on par to the start of John Wick: Chapter 3. Lionsgate is self-distributing in the UK and Latin America.
Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection
The Len Wiseman $80M-$90M directed movie (largely funded from foreign sales), which was delayed by a year for additional shooting (don’t say reshoots, it’s additional shooting, OK?) is expected to rank second during the first weekend of June where Disney’s Lilo & Stitch will threepeat No. 1 with $35M, -43%. Lilo & Stitch is flying past $300M this week, still the second highest grossing movie at the domestic box office YTD behind Warner Bros/Legendary’s A Minecraft Movie ($423.1M).
Ballerina stars Ana de Armas as an orphaned girl, Eve Macarro, who is trained by the Ruska Roma, the Russian assassin school/ ballet academy front, whose leader The Director (Anjelica Huston) also schooled John Wick (Keanu Reeves). As she becomes a gun for hire, she’s ultimately hellbent to avenge her father’s death, the guy slain by The Chancellor (Gabriel Byrne). There’s a slew of cameos from the John Wick gang along the way including Winston (Ian McShane) and Charon (the late Lance Reddick), the concierge at the Continental Hotel in New York, as well as Wick himself (Keanu Reeves).
Spinoffs rarely put up similar numbers or better than an original franchise’s installments; John Wick: Chapter the best bow in series at $73.8M. Sources advise not to comp Ballerina to any John Wick movies (this despite the fact that Reeves is in the marketing), rather the best comps are solo female action movies, i.e. Alita: Battle Angel ($28.5M), Furiosa ($26.3M), Madame Web ($15.3M).
Currently we hear Fandango presales for Ballerina are 32% ahead of Madame Web, but pacing -50% behind Furiosa. While we needed product in Q1 and Q2 of this year, Ballerina is opening at this point in time as Lionsgate had access to Reeves for the press tour (he introduced the movie last night at the Hollywood premiere with John Wick architect Chad Stahelski who is a producer on the film). One tracking service shows that first choice is best with men over 25, yet 40% behind Furiosa in the same demo.
Lionsgate has a master plan, as unveiled at CinemaCon, to build out the John Wick franchise even more than it already is (an animated prequel, a Donnie Yen directed movie about blind assassin Caine); Ballerina being another cog in the wheel. There’s already been the Peacock series The Continental.
The review embargo on Ballerina lifts at 3PM. Critics generally love John Wick movies, the movies ranging from 86% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes to Chapter 4‘s franchise high of 94% certified fresh.
There are fan screenings today starting at 7PM for the R-rated movie, with more previews tomorrow beginning at 6PM.
What else is going on next weekend?
Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning with a continued grip on Imax is eyeing around $15M in weekend 3, -45%. The running cume stands at $129.3M.
Sony’s second weekend of Karate Kid: Legends is eyeing around $10M, -51%. The movie through yesterday counts $24.1M.
Focus Features is expanding Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme from six theaters to 1,600 for a 3-day around $7M. Last weekend, the movie posted the best opening theater average of the year with $93,4K. By comparison, Asteroid City did $9M two Junes ago in its wide break second weekend on 1,675 theaters. No Rotten Tomatoes audience score yet.
‘Dangerous Animals‘
IFC/Shudder
IFC has the Australian shark movie, Dangerous Animals, which they world premiered in Director’s Fortnight at Cannes to 88% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes with film reviewers. The Sean Byrne directed, Jai Courtney starring final girl movie follows a shark tour guide who feeds his passengers to the sharks. Booked at 1,600 theaters, expect a low single digit range start. IFC’s Clown in the Cornfield opened to $3.6M and currently counts $7.2M.
NEON’s acquisition of Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck, which won the People’s Choice award at TIFF, is going out in 16 theaters and eight markets. Based on the short story by Stephen King, pic follows three chapters in the life of an ordinary man named Charles Krantz, played by Tom Hiddleston. Rotten Tomatoes reviews stand at 88% fresh.
